The people of Northern Africa and the Middle East are aroil these days with protests against a dozen autocratic governments, all in essentially Muslim countries. Even the relatively peaceful kingdom of Jordan, led by King Abdullah II, is experiencing protests; not for his ouster (after all, Deerfield Academy-educated kings are hard to find), but for more political rights and less corruption. Yemen’s president may fall, which will almost certainly aid terrorists groups. Hosni Mubarak is looking more and more like a grumpy businessman than Ivan the Terrible.
Who is keeping score? Where are our priorities? What are the priorities of Iran, our major nemesis in the area (whose mullahs-in-Chief we aided and abetted by ignoring “The People” of Iran when they cried out for international support in 2009)? How do we reconcile all this chaos?
Enter former US Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton. He is likely the only American today in a position of influence who really understands, and can articulate, the intricacies, the interactions, and the punches and counterpunches required of American diplomacy abroad. Despite the greater populations and apparent influence of Egypt and Libya, Bolton says we should pay attention to Bahrain … a small island … whose government is Sunni but whose majority is Shia, and therefore related theologically to the leadership of Iran. It is also home port of America’s Fifth Fleet.
If the Sunni minority’s government of Bahrain falls, the Shias will take over, with much support from Iran. When this happens, Iran will effectively control all of the oil that moves by ship through the Persian Gulf.
This will be another arrow in Iran’s bulging quiver of strategic capabilities with which to threaten those in the world they don’t like … with the US and Israel at the top of their list. We should also bear in mind that Iran’s power clique of mullahs would have no compunction about doing what may be unthinkable to the rest of the world: by setting themselves up as martyrs of the twelfth caliphate by launching A-bombs at Israel.
Let’s assume a better outcome, however … That Iran does not use nuclear weapons. In this case, Iran will still control just about all of the oil that flows out of the Persian Gulf (close to 29% of the total world production of oil, not to mention huge reserves and natural gas). They would singlehandedly, without OPEC and Saudi Arabia, send gasoline prices in the US to a level sufficient to bring the US economy to its knees … a feat worth, to Iran, whatever the price.
According to the Persian Gulf Taskforce, “The Persian Gulf contains … approximately two thirds of proven, conventional world oil reserves, and ….. 35% of the world’s natural gas reserves. Also, at the end of 2002, Persian Gulf countries maintained about 32% of the world’s oil production capacity. Perhaps even more significantly, the Persian Gulf countries normally maintain an overwhelming share (around 90%) of the world's excess oil production capacity”, a vital resource that has helped maintain economic stability in the world during recent crises such as the one that followed the Iraq war.
Insofar as Bahrain is concerned, we should pay heed to Ambassador Bolton, and keep on the Sunni side of the street.
DickShriver@WeThePeople.com
Comments@WeThePeople.com
